Back to business: the market for pitching

Four weeks of non-stop planning, building and blogging - my office is a mess of papers, schedules and itineraries! But the GABA 2010 schedule is complete and out there for the world to see. And admire. And possibly question my sanity.

The GABA dream is alive; it's just not very likely to happen in 2010, since I'm entrenched in Milwaukee for now. But planning the trip was still more fun than a fantasy football win (they're sparse these days), and I fully intend on taking the trip at some point, something that should be made easier now that the concept's out there and no one's had me committed.

I'll revisit that monster trip throughout the offseason, but for now, it's time to get back to the other purpose of the GABA blog - analysis of the actual baseball world (the one I don't have to get in a car and drive to).

PITCHING MARKET:
I'm fascinated by how scared teams (and players' agents) are to make a move this offseason. No one wants to move a muscle until John Lackey dictates the pitching market, specifically the salary for a free-agent starting pitcher.

Lackey will unquestionably get the top dollar figure this offseason... and I guess other pitchers can then say "well, I'm 75% as good as he is, so I should get 75% of his money."

Let's get this overwith. The Yankees are busy celebrating title number 27, and the Red Sox are seething. They know they have to respond to New York's super-splash in the free agent market last winter. And the response HAS to start with John Lackey. Few other teams can cough up Lackey money, and none of those teams feel the pressure to make a statement like the boys in Beantown.

Point is, the Sox should get this deal done as soon as possible, for several reasons. First and foremost, the whole "counter-punch statement" will effectively be sent. And once the ink has dried in the 9-figure deal, the other dominoes (read: lucrative free-agent contracts) can fall into place; literally, the market will be set. And these other rumors (like Halladay to Boston) can fall by the wayside. Then we'd all have to figure out something else to over-analyze in the weeks leading up to spring training.

A note to mid-market teams waiting out the John Lackey effect: maybe now's the time to get aggressive on that hurler you've been coveting. See if somebody will budge in this frozen-over offseason market. Stop worrying about possibly overpaying a pitcher before the market gets set. This may sound like fiscal hogwash to the 21st century penny-pinchers in the front offices, but an early contract is just as likely to be an underpayment this time around. Why? Because the Red Sox almost have to overpay for Lackey, which will in turn inflate deals for the next 10-15 best free agent pitchers.

Isn't being a leader and innovator an integral part of organizational success? Didn't I read that in "MBA In A Box" or something? What better way to be a leader than to NOT let the Red Sox or Yankees dictate your payment scale, for once? Maybe then everyone won't be comparing themselves to a pitcher with a 3.81 career ERA (good, but not stellar by any means).

One final note about Halladay: anyone else find it interesting that the Sox and Yankees are balking at trading for one of baseball's most consistently dominant pitchers? Does it have anything to do with those 485 innings he's thrown the last two seasons? Yes, it's a consensus that Halladay has a rubber arm... right now. But weren't similar things said about Pedro Martinez right before the Mets sank their future into his right arm?

HARWELL'S LAST CALL:
Ernie Harwell is 91, has inoperable cancer, and is waiting for the end. In fact, Harwell says he doesn't think he'll be around to see another MLB game. He told Bob Costas he'd be happy to see his next birthday in late January.

Harwell has accepted the news fairly easily, all things considered. It will not be nearly that easy for the rest of the baseball world. Harwell's wealth of experience goes back so far, he delivered papers to Margaret Mitchell in his youth. He called Bobby Thomson's "shot heard round the world" for NBC television. Baseball has expanded by 14 teams since Harwell became the voice of the Tigers.

A loss of that large a piece of baseball history will be felt in all corners of the baseball world. Harwell is irreplaceable, but many of his calls are preserved in this era of digital audio and internet file sharing. Harwell's legendary voice will remain with us long after he's gone.

Maybe the great GM in the sky will let Ernie see one more Opening Day.